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疫学的研究
● Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
Nature 04 May 2020
モデリング・予測
● Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) toreduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 2020.3.16
● Modeling infectious disease dynamics
Science 24 Apr 2020: eabb5659 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5659
… 感染症モデリングについてのパースペクティブ。
● Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
Science 14 Apr 2020: eabb5793 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793
… 今後の流行がどの程度続くかを予測した報告。
● Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
Lancet March 11, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4
「Shield immunity」
● Modeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 epidemic spread
Nature Medicine
疫学的なリスク因子推定
ウイルス変異仮説
● SARS‐CoV‐2 viral spike G614 mutation exhibits higher case fatality rate
IJCP 06 May 2020 https://doi.org/10.1111/ijcp.13525
… Sタンパクの G614 変異が病毒性を上げるのではないかという仮説。
ACE2 仮説
● Structural variations in human ACE2 may influence its binding with SARS‐CoV‐2 spike protein
Journal of medical virology 06 April 2020 https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25832
● Comparative genetic analysis of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) receptor ACE2 in different populations.
Cell Discovery volume 6, Article number: 11 (2020)
BCG 仮説
● SARS-CoV-2 Rates in BCG-Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Young Adults
JAMA. Published online May 13, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.8189
… イスラエルでの「感染率」比較。
BCG接種による感染率の差は見られなかった。
● Considering BCG vaccination to reduce the impact of COVID-19
Lancet DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31025-4
… BCG 仮説をもとに研究が始まっていることへのコメント。
● 【プレプリント】Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study
● 【プレプリント】Association of BCG vaccination policy with prevalence and mortality of COVID-19
HLA 仮説
● Human leukocyte antigen susceptibility map for SARS-CoV-2
Journal of virology DOI: 10.1128/JVI.00510-20
関連情報
● 日本公衆衛生学会 保健師のための積極的疫学調査ガイド
報道・解説・記事など
● Modeling COVID-19
The Confounder 2020.4.5
● How do children spread the coronavirus? The science still isn’t clear
Nature NEWS 2020.5.7
● 【参考】感染症流行モデルによる感染力を低下させる予防手段の効果に関する試算
生産研究 61,6;2009
● COVID-19の血清疫学についての素朴な疑問
日経メディカル 2020.5.7